Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-08-26 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

At least three probability points in the real retained window or the provider-supplied comparison period. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPolymarket · Sports

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners

Recorded state: 97% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +41.1 pts across 7 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +43.1 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability97%

Retained change+41.1 pts

Provider movement+43.1 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Tom Gentzsch

Recorded state: 97% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +30.3 pts across 4 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +50.3 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability97%

Retained change+30.3 pts

Provider movement+50.3 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels

Recorded state: 22% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -23.0 pts across 4 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -34.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability22%

Retained change-23.0 pts

Provider movement-34.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Recorded state: 21% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -2.0 pts across 39 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability21%

Retained change-2.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — JD Vance

Recorded state: 44% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +1.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability44%

Retained change+1.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — A. Ocasio-Cortez

Recorded state: 19% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 34 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability19%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPolymarket · Other

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Recorded state: 3% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -5.8 pts across 47 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -5.9 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability3%

Retained change-5.8 pts

Provider movement-5.9 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Politics

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Recorded state: 11% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -2.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -7.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability11%

Retained change-2.0 pts

Provider movement-7.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Crypto

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?

Recorded state: 29% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -3.3 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -7.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability29%

Retained change-3.3 pts

Provider movement-7.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗