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Live market observatory

Signals worth examining.
Noise held back.

Read-only observations from independent prediction-market venues. Priority view suppresses thin contracts and groups related outcomes; search and All contracts expose up to the top 500 current normalized contracts.

Information and research only.Market prices are observations, not Tomlinson forecasts or recommendations. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or revised. No trades or wagers are executed.

Source status

Provider health

500 searchable active records · 0 expired excluded · no simulated fallbacks
Polymarket
Live

On-demand read-only retrieval; no scheduled collection is running. 260 current normalized market records available

ATLAS-POLY-001

Last successful retrieval: 2026-10-31T09:27:40.889Z. Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:27:17.472555Z.

Retrieval freshness policy: 2 minutes.

Kalshi
Live

On-demand read-only retrieval; no scheduled collection is running. 238 current normalized market records available

ATLAS-KALSHI-001

Last successful retrieval: 2026-10-31T09:27:40.592Z. Provider timestamp: 2026-10-29T21:53:08.757155Z.

Retrieval freshness policy: 4 minutes.

PredictIt
Near-live

On-demand read-only retrieval; no scheduled collection is running. 2 current normalized market records available

ATLAS-PREDICTIT-001

Last successful retrieval: 2026-10-31T09:27:40.055Z. Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:27:15.654Z.

Retrieval freshness policy: 10 minutes.

Cross-venue monitor

Observed market signals

51 results

Activity floor + one leader per event
KalshiOtherLive

Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?

The market is open and currently supplies a usable probability observation.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-06-15T23:04:56.817856Z.

21 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.

Observed price37%+7.0 ptsMaterial movement
Bid / ask
35% / 39%
Spread
4.0 pts
24H dollar volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
Not supplied
Open interest
$115.3K
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Field coverage
limited fields
Participation quality
high
Prior-price change
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextKalshi 24-hour volume and open interest are dollars (fixed-point contract counts times last_price_dollars). This feed does not supply a separate liquidity field.

PolymarketOtherLive

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

127 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.

Observed price13%+5.0 ptsMaterial movement
Bid / ask
12% / 13%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$831.8K
Liquidity
$1.2M
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price30%-2.0 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
29% / 30%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$837.3K
Liquidity
$3.5M
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

3 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.

Observed price71%+1.0 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
70% / 71%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$5.1M
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price6%-1.0 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
5% / 6%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$1.4M
Liquidity
$6.6M
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price80%+2.5 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
79% / 80%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$737.5K
Liquidity
$449.1K
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price77%+7.5 ptsMaterial movement
Bid / ask
76% / 77%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$470.9K
Liquidity
$196.0K
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPolicyLive

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

4 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.

Observed price29%+4.0 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
28% / 29%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$285.6K
Liquidity
$666.5K
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price52%+2.0 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
51% / 52%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$141.2K
Liquidity
$431.4K
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price2%-0.8 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.1 pts
24H volume
$190.3K
Liquidity
$666.5K
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

The market is open and supplies a usable probability observation with visible activity and depth.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price72%+1.0 ptsActive market
Bid / ask
71% / 72%
Spread
1.0 pts
24H volume
$163.5K
Liquidity
$1.2M
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.

PolymarketPoliticsLive

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.

Active at retrieval: . Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:26:15.525004Z.

1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.

Observed price66%-16.5 ptsMaterial movement
Bid / ask
65% / 67%
Spread
2.0 pts
24H volume
$210.0K
Liquidity
$191.1K
Open interest
Not supplied
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Field coverage
verified fields
Participation quality
high
24H movement
available
Cross-venue match
not assessed

Reliability contextLive provider observation. Tomlinson shows the retrieval time and contract source so you can verify updates and resolution rules.