Tomlinson Closing Brief · Rolling beta edition

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

An evening intelligence checkpoint built from current active contracts and Tomlinson-retained observations. It is a rolling edition, not an exchange settlement report or an invented official close.

Browse edition archive →

Closing boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

The larger absolute move between the retained 12-hour window and the provider comparison, when that move is at least three points. The two measures remain separately labeled.

livePolymarket · Politics

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Recorded state: 66% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +5.5 pts across 46 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -16.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability66%

Retained change+5.5 pts

Provider movement-16.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

livePolymarket · Sports

Ningbo: Yaroslav Demin vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Recorded state: 56% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +11.0 pts across 5 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability56%

Retained change+11.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

livePolymarket · Sports

Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Harriet Dart

Recorded state: 64% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -8.0 pts across 9 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability64%

Retained change-8.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

livePolymarket · Politics

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Recorded state: 30% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -2.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability30%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movement-2.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

livePolymarket · Politics

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Recorded state: 71% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +1.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability71%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movement+1.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

livePolymarket · Politics

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Recorded state: 6% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -1.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -1.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability6%

Retained change-1.0 pts

Provider movement-1.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

liveKalshi · Other

Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?

Recorded state: 37% with high participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +4.5 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +7.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability37%

Retained change+4.5 pts

Provider movement+7.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

livePolymarket · Other

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Recorded state: 13% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +3.0 pts across 45 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +5.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability13%

Retained change+3.0 pts

Provider movement+5.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗

livePolymarket · Politics

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Recorded state: 80% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 46 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +2.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability80%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movement+2.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Investigate →Set alert Beta Live contract ↗