live · limited fieldsKalshi
Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?
37%Observed quote
Active at retrieval ·
Provider timestamp: 2026-06-15T23:04:56.817856Z. Independent causal evidence is not attached.
Provider source ↗Investigate →Evidence-driven prediction-market intelligence
Understand what prediction markets are saying—
and why.
Tomlinson turns market probabilities, evidence, current events, historical context, and uncertainty into explainable daily intelligence for people who need more than a raw price.
Live beta proofPublic Morning Brief · active contracts only · visible source timestamps
Start with an observed quote, inspect the source and limitations, then investigate or monitor the contract. A price change alone is not a causal explanation.
EvidenceExplainabilityContextProbability
Current provider observationsMonitoring
live · verified fieldsPolymarket
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
13%Observed quote
Active at retrieval ·
Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:28:15.511895Z. Independent causal evidence is not attached.
Provider source ↗Investigate →live · verified fieldsPolymarket
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
30%Observed quote
Active at retrieval ·
Provider timestamp: 2026-10-31T09:28:15.511895Z. Independent causal evidence is not attached.
Provider source ↗Investigate →The flagship daily experience
Morning Brief
An attributable view of qualifying observations, with no minimum story count: what changed, why it matters, what evidence exists, what remains uncertain, and what could invalidate the current interpretation.
01Live beta outputActive contracts only02TraceableSource IDs and timestamps03ExplainableUncertainty and limitations
How Tomlinson works
One connected intelligence workflow.
Prediction markets and original sources are organized into a repeatable path from observation to evidence-backed understanding.
- 01Markets & sources
- 02Validate & organize
- 03Morning Brief
- 04Investigation
- 05Evidence & confidence
- 06Research & monitoring
What Tomlinson is
Research infrastructure for understanding prediction markets.
Tomlinson is an AI-assisted intelligence and research platform that helps users understand prediction markets through evidence, context, probability, historical analysis, and explainable interpretation.
It organizes observed market information and supporting evidence to explain what changed, why it may matter, how reliable the available information appears, what alternative interpretations exist, and what could invalidate a conclusion.
Trust by design
Every conclusion should show its work.
Observed data, corroborating evidence, derived interpretation, counterevidence, and unresolved uncertainty remain visibly separate.
Read the methodology →Featured research
How to read market evidence
Methodology explains our operating rules. Research examines specific questions and limitations.
A workspace that learns with permission
One account. Your brief, research, watchlists, and delivery preferences.
Personalization begins with what you explicitly choose. Behavioral learning remains optional, visible, and reversible.
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