Cross-Venue Context Lab
Contract comparability, wording, expiration, resolution, liquidity, and reaction speed.
Tomlinson Research Lab
Research that keeps uncertainty visible.
Structured Tomlinson research into prediction markets, evidence, probability, forecasting, and AI-assisted intelligence. Published work preserves methods, limitations, competing interpretations, and version history.
Featured research
Current studies
Research supports the daily intelligence workflow; it does not replace the Morning Brief or automatically change production models.
PublishedTI-RL-2026-001
When are prediction-market contracts genuinely comparable?
Which contract and data fields must agree before two venue observations can be treated as directly comparable?
EvidenceProvisionally Verified
ConfidenceMedium
ConclusionProvisionally Supported
PublishedTI-RL-2026-002
Can a platform-wide freshness gate prevent expired intelligence from surfacing?
Does an independent close-time check reliably separate actionable contracts from historical observations before public ranking?
EvidenceVerified
ConfidenceHigh
ConclusionSupported
Program structure
Three research programs
Forecast Calibration Lab
Resolution rates, probability bands, category differences, and approved calibration metrics.
Historical Intelligence Lab
Prior events, evidence timelines, useful analogs, and false-equivalence risks.