Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-08-27 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

At least three probability points in the real retained window or the provider-supplied comparison period. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPolymarket · Other

Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?

Recorded state: 10% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -30.0 pts across 31 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -30.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability10%

Retained change-30.0 pts

Provider movement-30.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Other

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Recorded state: 29% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -9.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -10.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability29%

Retained change-9.0 pts

Provider movement-10.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Other

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

Recorded state: 26% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +5.5 pts across 39 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -11.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability26%

Retained change+5.5 pts

Provider movement-11.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Recorded state: 21% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability21%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Marco Rubio

Recorded state: 20% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -1.0 pts across 22 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability20%

Retained change-1.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — A. Ocasio-Cortez

Recorded state: 19% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability19%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPolymarket · Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August?

Recorded state: 46% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +2.5 pts across 37 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -33.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability46%

Retained change+2.5 pts

Provider movement-33.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Other

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Recorded state: 6% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -2.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -4.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability6%

Retained change-2.0 pts

Provider movement-4.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Policy

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Recorded state: 13% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +1.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability13%

Retained change+1.0 pts

Provider movement-3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗