Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-08-31 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

At least three probability points in the real retained window or the provider-supplied comparison period. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Jacob Fearnley

Recorded state: 1% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -68.3 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -50.3 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability1%

Retained change-68.3 pts

Provider movement-50.3 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Diane Parry

Recorded state: 20% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -46.0 pts across 7 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -27.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability20%

Retained change-46.0 pts

Provider movement-27.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer

Recorded state: 80% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +20.0 pts across 10 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +30.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability80%

Retained change+20.0 pts

Provider movement+30.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Recorded state: 21% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability21%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — JD Vance

Recorded state: 45% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability45%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — A. Ocasio-Cortez

Recorded state: 17% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +1.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability17%

Retained change+1.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPolymarket · Crypto

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

Recorded state: 11% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -8.0 pts across 47 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -30.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability11%

Retained change-8.0 pts

Provider movement-30.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Other

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Recorded state: 35% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +4.5 pts across 23 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +9.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability35%

Retained change+4.5 pts

Provider movement+9.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Policy

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Recorded state: 56% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +5.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +6.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability56%

Retained change+5.0 pts

Provider movement+6.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗