Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-09-01 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

At least three probability points in the real retained window or the provider-supplied comparison period. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Robin Montgomery

Recorded state: 97% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +50.7 pts across 9 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +39.7 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability97%

Retained change+50.7 pts

Provider movement+39.7 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic

Recorded state: 39% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +29.6 pts across 8 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +20.1 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability39%

Retained change+29.6 pts

Provider movement+20.1 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet

Recorded state: 59% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +26.5 pts across 26 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +30.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability59%

Retained change+26.5 pts

Provider movement+30.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Recorded state: 22% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +1.0 pts across 47 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability22%

Retained change+1.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Marco Rubio

Recorded state: 20% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 47 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability20%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — A. Ocasio-Cortez

Recorded state: 17% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 47 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability17%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

2 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPolymarket · Other

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?

Recorded state: 82% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -3.5 pts across 45 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +24.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability82%

Retained change-3.5 pts

Provider movement+24.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Policy

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Recorded state: 18% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +2.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +2.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability18%

Retained change+2.0 pts

Provider movement+2.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗