Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-09-05 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

At least three probability points in the real retained window or the provider-supplied comparison period. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPolymarket · Sports

LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Recorded state: 19% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -26.0 pts across 5 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -19.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability19%

Retained change-26.0 pts

Provider movement-19.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open ATP: Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea

Recorded state: 38% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: -20.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability38%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement-20.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Benjamin Bonzi

Recorded state: 91% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +15.5 pts across 5 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +26.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability91%

Retained change+15.5 pts

Provider movement+26.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Recorded state: 21% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability21%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — JD Vance

Recorded state: 45% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 41 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability45%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Jon Ossoff

Recorded state: 17% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +0.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: The provider did not supply a reliable comparison-period movement field.

Probability17%

Retained change+0.0 pts

Provider movementUnavailable

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPolymarket · Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Recorded state: 18% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +3.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -35.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability18%

Retained change+3.0 pts

Provider movement-35.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Business

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Recorded state: 66% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +7.0 pts across 12 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -23.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability66%

Retained change+7.0 pts

Provider movement-23.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Other

Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

Recorded state: 32% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +5.0 pts across 13 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +15.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability32%

Retained change+5.0 pts

Provider movement+15.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗