Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-09-13 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Partial-provider state. One or more providers were unavailable. This edition contains only successfully retrieved current observations and no synthetic fallback records.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

At least three probability points in the real retained window or the provider-supplied comparison period. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPolymarket · Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs

Recorded state: 86% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: +41.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability86%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement+41.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton

Recorded state: 88% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: +30.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability88%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement+30.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Sports

Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Recorded state: 71% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +26.0 pts across 8 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +26.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability71%

Retained change+26.0 pts

Provider movement+26.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPolymarket · Sports

LoL: The Otter Side vs White Dragons (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs

Recorded state: 18% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -2.5 pts across 2 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -31.5 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability18%

Retained change-2.5 pts

Provider movement-31.5 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Other

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Recorded state: 18% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -2.0 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability18%

Retained change-2.0 pts

Provider movement-3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Policy

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Recorded state: 78% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: -2.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability78%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement-2.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPolymarket · Policy

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Recorded state: 24% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: +3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability24%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement+3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Technology

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Recorded state: 93% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: -4.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability93%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement-4.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPolymarket · Politics

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Recorded state: 11% with high participation quality and full provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -1.3 pts across 48 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +2.3 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability11%

Retained change-1.3 pts

Provider movement+2.3 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗