Tomlinson Closing Brief · 2026-10-30 archive

What moved, what held—and what carries forward.

A preserved, immutable record of the evidence and provider state available when this edition was generated.

Partial-provider state. One or more providers were unavailable. This edition contains only successfully retrieved current observations and no synthetic fallback records.

Historical boundary. Provider venues operate on different schedules. “Closing” means this Tomlinson edition’s generation time; individual contracts may remain open, pause, expire, or resolve later. Values and source availability may have changed since this record was captured.

Observed Repricing

3 material moves

The larger absolute move between the retained 12-hour window and the provider comparison, when that move is at least three points. The two measures remain separately labeled.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in New York's 17th District? — Democratic

Recorded state: 73% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +3.0 pts across 24 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +15.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability73%

Retained change+3.0 pts

Provider movement+15.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Other

Will Pete Hegseth leave office in 2026? — Will Pete Hegseth leave office in 2026?

Recorded state: 42% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: +9.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability42%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement+9.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas? — Democrats (Talarico)

Recorded state: 64% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: -8.0 pts across 24 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: -6.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability64%

Retained change-8.0 pts

Provider movement-6.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Held Through the Window

3 comparatively stable observations

Contracts with an available movement measure below three points. Stability does not imply confidence in the outcome.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Iowa? — Republican (Hinson)

Recorded state: 55% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: -3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability55%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement-3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Vermont? — Democratic

Recorded state: 29% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: +3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability29%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement+3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Ohio? — Democratic

Recorded state: 81% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: -3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability81%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement-3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

Carry Forward

3 active developments to monitor

Priority-eligible records that remained active and deserved another look on the next refresh or Morning Brief.

archivedPredictIt · Politics

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Recorded state: 45% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: +4.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability45%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement+4.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — JD Vance

Recorded state: 35% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: Insufficient time-separated observations to claim a 12-hour move.

Provider comparison: -3.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability35%

Retained changeUnavailable

Provider movement-3.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗

archivedPredictIt · Politics

Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? — Democratic

Recorded state: 71% with unavailable participation quality and partial provider coverage.

Tomlinson-retained window: +4.0 pts across 24 real observations during the prior 12 hours.

Provider comparison: +4.0 pts over the provider-supplied comparison period.

Probability71%

Retained change+4.0 pts

Provider movement+4.0 pts

Interpretation boundary: Observed repricing is not proof of a real-world cause. No independently reviewed causal evidence is attached unless the investigation states otherwise.

Carry-forward condition: Reassess if the quote, freshness, participation, contract status, or official resolution rules change.

Recorded source ↗