Historical Intelligence Lab · TI-RL-2026-002
Can a platform-wide freshness gate prevent expired intelligence from surfacing?
Version 1.0 · Published 2026-08-08 · Updated 2026-08-08
Research disclosure. This Tomlinson-created study is not represented as peer-reviewed or definitive. Observations, system validation, and interpretation remain distinct.
Research question
Does an independent close-time check reliably separate actionable contracts from historical observations before public ranking?
Hypothesis
Filtering normalized records against a server timestamp, in addition to provider status flags, will exclude passed contracts without deleting their observations.
Why it matters
Provider status fields can lag or differ. A platform-owned freshness gate creates a consistent final safeguard.
Scope and methodology
- Normalize provider records without synthetic fallbacks.
- Parse each available close timestamp against the server retrieval time.
- Partition passed contracts before ranking and preserve the historical partition for database archiving.
- Test past, future, missing, and invalid provider timestamps.
Findings
- Passed close timestamps are excluded before public ranking.
- Future close timestamps remain eligible.
- Invalid provider dates remain visible with provider-quality limitations rather than being silently destroyed.
- The historical schema preserves expired observations for later calibration and backtesting.
Competing interpretations
- Provider open/closed flags alone may be adequate for providers with strong status guarantees.
- A grace period could be appropriate for some delayed-resolution contracts, but would weaken the live-feed rule.
Limitations
- Persistent archiving requires the proposed Supabase migration and Preview configuration.
- Contracts without a parseable close time depend on provider open status.
- Resolution outcome ingestion is a later Atlas task.
Invalidating conditions
- An expired contract appears in the public API after the gate.
- Clock skew causes a future contract to be excluded.
- Historical persistence overwrites or deletes prior observations.