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Historical Intelligence Lab · TI-RL-2026-002

Can a platform-wide freshness gate prevent expired intelligence from surfacing?

Version 1.0 · Published 2026-08-08 · Updated 2026-08-08

Research disclosure. This Tomlinson-created study is not represented as peer-reviewed or definitive. Observations, system validation, and interpretation remain distinct.

Research question

Does an independent close-time check reliably separate actionable contracts from historical observations before public ranking?

Hypothesis

Filtering normalized records against a server timestamp, in addition to provider status flags, will exclude passed contracts without deleting their observations.

Why it matters

Provider status fields can lag or differ. A platform-owned freshness gate creates a consistent final safeguard.

Scope and methodology

  • Normalize provider records without synthetic fallbacks.
  • Parse each available close timestamp against the server retrieval time.
  • Partition passed contracts before ranking and preserve the historical partition for database archiving.
  • Test past, future, missing, and invalid provider timestamps.

Findings

  • Passed close timestamps are excluded before public ranking.
  • Future close timestamps remain eligible.
  • Invalid provider dates remain visible with provider-quality limitations rather than being silently destroyed.
  • The historical schema preserves expired observations for later calibration and backtesting.

Competing interpretations

  • Provider open/closed flags alone may be adequate for providers with strong status guarantees.
  • A grace period could be appropriate for some delayed-resolution contracts, but would weaken the live-feed rule.

Limitations

  • Persistent archiving requires the proposed Supabase migration and Preview configuration.
  • Contracts without a parseable close time depend on provider open status.
  • Resolution outcome ingestion is a later Atlas task.

Invalidating conditions

  • An expired contract appears in the public API after the gate.
  • Clock skew causes a future contract to be excluded.
  • Historical persistence overwrites or deletes prior observations.