Contract wording

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?

Outcome structure

Yes — Hakeem Jeffries / No — Hakeem Jeffries

Resolution criteria

If Hakeem Jeffries is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Provider-named resolution source: ABC; Fox News; MSNBC; The Wall Street Journal; Semafor; Bloomberg News; U.S. House of Representatives; The Information; CBS; NBC; Axios; CNN; Reuters; the Office of the Speaker of the House; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Politico; The New York Times

This timeline uses Tomlinson-retained provider observations, sampled into 15-minute UTC intervals. It is not a continuous tick feed. Up to 96 recent samples are shown; active observations are retained for 2 days.

1. Nov 1, 5:45 PM ESTProvider probability observed89.5%
2. Nov 1, 5:30 PM ESTProvider probability observed89.5%
3. Nov 1, 5:15 PM ESTProvider probability observed89.0%
4. Nov 1, 5:00 PM ESTProvider probability observed88.0%
5. Nov 1, 4:45 PM ESTProvider probability observed88.0%
6. Nov 1, 4:30 PM ESTProvider probability observed88.0%

Insufficient causal evidence

Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

The provider reports the observed price and comparison fields above. Movement is not proof of a cause.

Alternative interpretation

The move may reflect contract-specific participation, liquidity, wording, or resolution mechanics rather than a durable change in the underlying event.

Counterevidence and missing information

No independent counterevidence is attached. That absence lowers interpretive confidence; it is not evidence that an interpretation is correct.

Open each relationship to see what the current source supports, what depends on it, how it connects to the timeline, and where evidence is missing.

Analytical confidence: Insufficient. Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

Medium field confidence. This assessment reflects field completeness (4/5 core fields), provider freshness, and visible bid/ask data. It is not a forecast confidence score or probability of outcome.

• Freshness: live
• Coverage: partial; data completeness: partial
• Provider-reported movement field: available
• Participation quality: high
• Tomlinson-retained history: 96 governed observations available
• Cross-venue comparability: not assessed

Insufficient information: no active contract from another venue shares enough normalized event terms for useful comparison. Broad topic similarity is intentionally excluded.

• The provider revises or withdraws the quote.
• The contract expires, resolves, is cancelled, or changes its resolution rules.
• New primary evidence contradicts the implied interpretation.
• Liquidity or spread deteriorates enough to make the observation unreliable.

Reassess on the next provider refresh or immediately after a contract-rule change.