Contract wording

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Outcome structure

Yes / No within a 2-contract market family

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This timeline uses Tomlinson-retained provider observations, sampled into 15-minute UTC intervals. It is not a continuous tick feed. Up to 96 recent samples are shown; active observations are retained for 3 days.

1. Oct 31, 6:15 AM EDTProvider probability observed37.0%
2. Oct 31, 6:00 AM EDTProvider probability observed37.0%
3. Oct 31, 5:45 AM EDTProvider probability observed37.5%
4. Oct 31, 5:30 AM EDTProvider probability observed38.0%
5. Oct 31, 5:15 AM EDTProvider probability observed38.5%
6. Oct 31, 5:00 AM EDTProvider probability observed38.5%

Insufficient causal evidence

Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

The provider reports the observed price and comparison fields above. Movement is not proof of a cause.

Alternative interpretation

The move may reflect contract-specific participation, liquidity, wording, or resolution mechanics rather than a durable change in the underlying event.

Counterevidence and missing information

No independent counterevidence is attached. That absence lowers interpretive confidence; it is not evidence that an interpretation is correct.

Open each relationship to see what the current source supports, what depends on it, how it connects to the timeline, and where evidence is missing.

Analytical confidence: Insufficient. Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

High field confidence. This assessment reflects field completeness (5/5 core fields), provider freshness, and visible bid/ask data. It is not a forecast confidence score or probability of outcome.

• Freshness: live
• Coverage: full; data completeness: complete
• Provider-reported movement field: available
• Participation quality: high
• Tomlinson-retained history: 96 governed observations available
• Cross-venue comparability: not assessed

Insufficient information: no active contract from another venue shares enough normalized event terms for useful comparison. Broad topic similarity is intentionally excluded.

• The provider revises or withdraws the quote.
• The contract expires, resolves, is cancelled, or changes its resolution rules.
• New primary evidence contradicts the implied interpretation.
• Liquidity or spread deteriorates enough to make the observation unreliable.

Reassess on the next provider refresh or immediately after a contract-rule change.