Contract wording

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Outcome structure

Yes / No within a 2-contract market family

Resolution criteria

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Provider-named resolution source: https://www.cik.bg/

This timeline uses Tomlinson-retained provider observations, sampled into 15-minute UTC intervals. It is not a continuous tick feed. Up to 96 recent samples are shown; active observations are retained for 3 days.

1. Oct 31, 6:15 AM EDTProvider probability observed66.0%
2. Oct 31, 6:00 AM EDTProvider probability observed66.0%
3. Oct 31, 5:45 AM EDTProvider probability observed66.0%
4. Oct 31, 5:30 AM EDTProvider probability observed66.0%
5. Oct 31, 5:15 AM EDTProvider probability observed66.0%
6. Oct 31, 5:00 AM EDTProvider probability observed66.0%

Insufficient causal evidence

Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

The provider reports the observed price and comparison fields above. Movement is not proof of a cause.

Alternative interpretation

The move may reflect contract-specific participation, liquidity, wording, or resolution mechanics rather than a durable change in the underlying event.

Counterevidence and missing information

No independent counterevidence is attached. That absence lowers interpretive confidence; it is not evidence that an interpretation is correct.

Open each relationship to see what the current source supports, what depends on it, how it connects to the timeline, and where evidence is missing.

Analytical confidence: Insufficient. Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

High field confidence. This assessment reflects field completeness (5/5 core fields), provider freshness, and visible bid/ask data. It is not a forecast confidence score or probability of outcome.

• Freshness: live
• Coverage: full; data completeness: complete
• Provider-reported movement field: available
• Participation quality: high
• Tomlinson-retained history: 50 governed observations available
• Cross-venue comparability: not assessed

These candidates share event terms but are not established as equivalent. Tomlinson will not calculate divergence until wording, expiration, outcome structure, and resolution criteria pass governed review.

• The provider revises or withdraws the quote.
• The contract expires, resolves, is cancelled, or changes its resolution rules.
• New primary evidence contradicts the implied interpretation.
• Liquidity or spread deteriorates enough to make the observation unreliable.

Reassess on the next provider refresh or immediately after a contract-rule change.