Contract wording

Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Harriet Dart

Outcome structure

Xinran Sun / Harriet Dart

Resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Xinran Sun and Harriet Dart in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xinran Sun' if Xinran Sun advances against Harriet Dart. This market will resolve to 'Harriet Dart' if Harriet Dart advances against Xinran Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Provider-named resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

This timeline uses Tomlinson-retained provider observations, sampled into 15-minute UTC intervals. It is not a continuous tick feed. Up to 96 recent samples are shown; active observations are retained for 3 days.

1. Oct 31, 6:15 AM EDTProvider probability observed92.5%
2. Oct 31, 6:00 AM EDTProvider probability observed83.5%
3. Oct 31, 5:45 AM EDTProvider probability observed75.5%
4. Oct 31, 5:30 AM EDTProvider probability observed76.5%
5. Oct 31, 5:15 AM EDTProvider probability observed43.5%
6. Oct 31, 5:00 AM EDTProvider probability observed74.5%

Insufficient causal evidence

Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

The provider reports the observed price and comparison fields above. Movement is not proof of a cause.

Alternative interpretation

The move may reflect contract-specific participation, liquidity, wording, or resolution mechanics rather than a durable change in the underlying event.

Counterevidence and missing information

No independent counterevidence is attached. That absence lowers interpretive confidence; it is not evidence that an interpretation is correct.

Open each relationship to see what the current source supports, what depends on it, how it connects to the timeline, and where evidence is missing.

Analytical confidence: Insufficient. Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

High field confidence. This assessment reflects field completeness (5/5 core fields), provider freshness, and visible bid/ask data. It is not a forecast confidence score or probability of outcome.

• Freshness: live
• Coverage: full; data completeness: complete
• Provider-reported movement field: unavailable
• Participation quality: high
• Tomlinson-retained history: 13 governed observations available
• Cross-venue comparability: not assessed

Insufficient information: no active contract from another venue shares enough normalized event terms for useful comparison. Broad topic similarity is intentionally excluded.

• The provider revises or withdraws the quote.
• The contract expires, resolves, is cancelled, or changes its resolution rules.
• New primary evidence contradicts the implied interpretation.
• Liquidity or spread deteriorates enough to make the observation unreliable.

Reassess on the next provider refresh or immediately after a contract-rule change.