Contract wording

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?

Outcome structure

Yes / No

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Provider-named resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/

This timeline uses Tomlinson-retained provider observations, sampled into 15-minute UTC intervals. It is not a continuous tick feed. Up to 96 recent samples are shown; active observations are retained for 2 days.

1. Nov 1, 5:45 PM ESTProvider probability observed44.5%
2. Nov 1, 5:30 PM ESTProvider probability observed44.5%
3. Nov 1, 5:15 PM ESTProvider probability observed44.5%
4. Nov 1, 5:00 PM ESTProvider probability observed44.5%
5. Nov 1, 4:45 PM ESTProvider probability observed44.5%
6. Nov 1, 4:30 PM ESTProvider probability observed44.5%

Insufficient causal evidence

Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

The provider reports the observed price and comparison fields above. Movement is not proof of a cause.

Alternative interpretation

The move may reflect contract-specific participation, liquidity, wording, or resolution mechanics rather than a durable change in the underlying event.

Counterevidence and missing information

No independent counterevidence is attached. That absence lowers interpretive confidence; it is not evidence that an interpretation is correct.

Open each relationship to see what the current source supports, what depends on it, how it connects to the timeline, and where evidence is missing.

Analytical confidence: Insufficient. Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.

High field confidence. This assessment reflects field completeness (5/5 core fields), provider freshness, and visible bid/ask data. It is not a forecast confidence score or probability of outcome.

• Freshness: live
• Coverage: full; data completeness: complete
• Provider-reported movement field: available
• Participation quality: high
• Tomlinson-retained history: 96 governed observations available
• Cross-venue comparability: not assessed

These candidates share event terms but are not established as equivalent. Tomlinson will not calculate divergence until wording, expiration, outcome structure, and resolution criteria pass governed review.

• The provider revises or withdraws the quote.
• The contract expires, resolves, is cancelled, or changes its resolution rules.
• New primary evidence contradicts the implied interpretation.
• Liquidity or spread deteriorates enough to make the observation unreliable.

Reassess on the next provider refresh or immediately after a contract-rule change.