- What it supports
- The probability, quote fields, provider state, and retrieval-time claim shown in this investigation.
- What it does not support
- The event outcome, causal attribution, or an independent assessment of the market price.
- Timing relationship
- current market observation
- Quality
- Not scored for causal evidence
- Retrieved
- Reliability context
- PredictIt does not provide the same streaming activity and depth fields as the other venues; this record is labeled near-live.
- Conclusions dependent on it
- Current probability, bid/ask, spread, activity, and freshness displays depend on this provider record where those fields are supplied.
Market investigation · ATLAS-PREDICTIT-001
Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? — Democratic
The market is open and currently supplies a usable probability observation.
Track material probability or evidence changes. Email delivery is controlled separately in Communication preferences.
Market data
Probability52.0%
24H movementNot supplied
Bid / ask52.0% / 53.0%
Spread1.0%
24H volumeNot supplied
LiquidityNot supplied
Closes: Not supplied. Methodology: ATLAS-SIGNALS-0.9. Data quality: limited fields.
Contract and resolution rules
Contract wording
Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? — Democratic
Outcome structure
Binary Yes / No contract within a 2-contract market family
Resolution criteria
The provider feed does not supply resolution criteria for this contract. Use the official contract page before treating it as comparable to another market.
Rule ingestion · source-linked
This provider-backed rule record is retained in the internal versioned corpus.
Observed history
This timeline uses Tomlinson-retained provider observations, sampled into 15-minute UTC intervals. It is not a continuous tick feed. Up to 96 recent samples are shown; active observations are retained for 3 days.
Observed change+2.0 pts
Observed range50.0%–53.0%
Retained samples96
Sep 15, 4:00 AM EDT52.0%Sep 16, 3:45 AM EDT
- Provider probability observed52.0%
- Provider probability observed52.0%
- Provider probability observed52.0%
- Provider probability observed52.0%
- Provider probability observed52.0%
- Provider probability observed52.0%
History boundary
Only observations collected after this governed history system is activated appear here. Tomlinson does not invent or interpolate missing points, and provider revisions can change later observations.
Why it moved
Insufficient causal evidence
Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.
The provider reports the observed price and comparison fields above. Movement is not proof of a cause.
Alternative interpretation
The move may reflect contract-specific participation, liquidity, wording, or resolution mechanics rather than a durable change in the underlying event.
Counterevidence and missing information
No independent counterevidence is attached. That absence lowers interpretive confidence; it is not evidence that an interpretation is correct.
Evidence map
Open each relationship to see what the current source supports, what depends on it, how it connects to the timeline, and where evidence is missing.
1Observed claim
2Governed sources
0Independent evidence
96Timeline observations
ClaimSupported observationInspect relationship
PredictIt reported an observed probability of 52.0% for this contract at retrieval time.
- Claim scope
- Supports the displayed market-state claim only. It does not establish the event outcome or the cause of a price movement.
- Confidence impact
- If this source is withdrawn, revised, or becomes stale, the current market-state claim becomes unavailable. No outcome-confidence score is inferred from the quote.
- Timeline relationship
- This claim is connected to 96 Tomlinson-retained observations in the visible timeline.
Sources2 governed relationshipsInspect provenance
- What it supports
- Contract wording, outcome structure, and provider-supplied resolution criteria where available.
- What it does not support
- Why the market moved, whether another contract is equivalent, or the eventual event outcome.
- Timing relationship
- current rule record
- Quality
- Not scored for causal evidence
- Retrieved
- Reliability context
- Retained in the internal versioned contract-rule corpus. Provider revisions remain possible.
- Conclusions dependent on it
- Contract interpretation and cross-venue comparability depend on this source; it does not explain market movement.
InterpretationInsufficient causal evidenceInspect boundary
Fewer than two independent, verified, time-stamped sources support a causal claim.
- Corroborating causal sources
- 0
- Opposing sources
- 0
Atlas evidence corpus: Staged in Preview; independent reviewed evidence is not yet activated.
Related contextNo governed candidatesInspect context
No different-venue contract shares enough normalized event terms for governed comparison. Broad topic similarity is excluded.
Confidence and data quality
Low field confidence. This assessment reflects field completeness (2/5 core fields), provider freshness, and visible bid/ask data. It is not a forecast confidence score or probability of outcome.
- Freshness: near-live
- Coverage: partial; data completeness: partial
- Provider-reported movement field: unavailable
- Participation quality: unavailable
- Tomlinson-retained history: 96 governed observations available
- Cross-venue comparability: not assessed
Cross-Venue Context
Insufficient information: no active contract from another venue shares enough normalized event terms for useful comparison. Broad topic similarity is intentionally excluded.
Equivalence registry
The governed equivalence-operations migration is staged but not activated. No direct equivalence or divergence is asserted.
Invalidating conditions
- The provider revises or withdraws the quote.
- The contract expires, resolves, is cancelled, or changes its resolution rules.
- New primary evidence contradicts the implied interpretation.
- Liquidity or spread deteriorates enough to make the observation unreliable.
Reassess on the next provider refresh or immediately after a contract-rule change.